How the confectionery business works in Russia. Cookies, gingerbread, cakes, pastries, flour-type oriental sweets, muffins, rolls, waffles
Relevance
The Russian confectionery market is one of the largest markets in the world, yielding in physical terms only to the US market. One of the features of this market is a high level of concentration - a significant share of its mass segment is almost constantly controlled by 5-6 leading players, and the role of local manufacturers is increasing in positions that require a more detailed study of the nomenclature due to regional characteristics, as well as in the positions of perishable products.
Target
Analysis of the Russian market of premium confectionery products
Short description
The first chapter of the marketing research of the premium confectionery market provides an overview of the market. The main characteristics of the market are considered, the factors influencing the market are estimated, the share of imports in the market is given.
The second chapter of the marketing research analyzes imports in the confectionery market in 2015. The volume and dynamics of imports are shown, the structure of imports is compiled by producing countries (in physical and value terms) and by manufacturing companies (in natural and value terms).
The result of the study was a forecast of the market situation for 2017.
Content
Part 1. REVIEW OF THE RUSSIAN CONFECTIONERY MARKET
1.1.Main characteristics of the market
1.2.Evaluation of factors affecting the market
1.3.Share of imports in the market
1.4. Dynamics of the volume and capacity of the market (2013 - 2015)
1.5. Market structure by types of products
Part 2. IMPORT ANALYSIS IN THE CONFECTIONERY MARKET (2015)
2.1 Volume and dynamics of imports
2.2 Import structure:
2.2.1. by producing countries (in physical and value terms)
2.2.2. by manufacturing companies (in physical and value terms)
Part 3. COMPETITOR ANALYSIS
3.1.Major players in the market
3.2. Market shares of the largest competitors
Part 4. MARKET FORECAST FOR 2017
Chart example
Research excerpt
“...the premium confectionery market has a significant potential for import substitution, since 25-27% of premium products are imported goods. But, it is impossible to predict a rapid and large-scale growth in the volume of Russian premium products. Economic factors have a negative impact on the market situation - they impede the renewal of the material and technical base of production and the growth of household incomes. Despite all the difficulties of the economic situation, manufacturers of the premium segment of confectionery products are not threatened with a decrease in consumption, as the market has a certain immunity ... "
List of diagrams
Diagram 1. Dynamics of Russia's GDP, in % to the previous year
Diagram 2. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate against the ruble, Jan. 2015-Oct. 2016, rub. for 1 US dollar
Diagram 3. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of the Russian Federation, 2010 - II quarter. 2016
Diagram 4. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, RF, 2007-2015, 2016 forecast
Diagram 5. The share of imported confectionery products in the Russian market, by weight of goods, 2013
Diagram 6. The share of imported confectionery products in the Russian market, by weight of goods, 2015
Diagram 7. The structure of the production of confectionery products (all types) by the Federal Districts of Russia, at the end of 2015
Diagram 8. The structure of the confectionery market by type of product, in physical terms, 2015
Diagram 9. Structure of the main types of confectionery products, in kind, 2015
Diagram 10. The volume and dynamics of imports of all types of confectionery products to Russia, million dollars, January 2014 - July 2016
Diagram 11. Volume and dynamics of imports of all types of confectionery products to Russia, thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016
Diagram 12. The volume and dynamics of imports of sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) to Russia, in million dollars and thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016 (code 1704)
Diagram 13. The volume and dynamics of imports of flour confectionery, cakes, cookies, etc., in million dollars and thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016 (code 1905)
Diagram 14. The volume and dynamics of imports of chocolate and cocoa products to Russia, in million dollars and thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016 (code 1806)
Diagram 15. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of the amount in $, 2014
Diagram 16. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of mass, 2014
Diagram 17. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of the amount in $, 2015
Diagram 18. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of mass, 2015
Diagram 19. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of the amount in $, I-VII months. 2016
Diagram 20. Structure of imports of flour confectionery products to Russia (HS code 1905), share of the amount in $, 2015
Diagram 21. The structure of imports to Russia of flour confectionery products (TN VED code 1905), share of the mass, 2015
Diagram 22. Structure of imports to Russia of sugar confectionery products (including white chocolate) that do not contain cocoa (TN VED code 1704), share of the amount in $, 2015
Diagram 23. Structure of imports to Russia of sugar confectionery products (including white chocolate) that do not contain cocoa (TN VED code 1704), share of mass, 2015
Diagram 24. Structure of imports to Russia of all types of confectionery, share of the amount in $, 2015
Diagram 25. The structure of imports to Russia of all types of confectionery, share of the mass, 2015
Diagram 26. Market shares of the largest players-manufacturers of the "premium" segment of products
Diagram 27. Dynamics of GDP growth in the Russian Federation, forecast up to 2030, %
Diagram 28. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, forecast until 2020
List of tables
Table 1. Factors affecting the confectionery market in the Russian Federation
Table 2. Index of industrial production by constituent entities of the Russian Federation (in % of the previous year), 2010-2015
Table 3. Population of Russia, Moscow and the region, 2009 - 2015
Table 4. Volume and capacity of the Russian confectionery market, 2013 - 2015
Table 5. Volumes of imports of confectionery products in two price segments, 2015, tons
Table 9. The largest players-manufacturers of the "premium" segment of products
The Russian confectionery market has undergone major changes since 2013. To find out the prospects for its development, let's look at the factors that influence the choice of sweets and what Russian confectioners offer consumers today. We will analyze the confectionery market over the past 4 years and identify the main trends.
Confectionery products are sweets that have a high nutritional value. They are beautifully decorated, have a pronounced taste. The composition of such products most often includes; sugar or its substitutes, fats, flour, stabilizers, dyes, starch, nuts, cocoa and other products.
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Confectionery products are divided into 3 groups:
- chocolate: chocolate, bars, chocolates ;
- sugary: sweets, caramel, marshmallows, marmalade, marshmallow, toffee, dragee;
- flour: cookies, cakes, cakes, biscuits, waffles
Statistics show that on average a resident of Europe eats 6 kg of sweets per year. Russians are less likely to prefer sweet foods. According to expert estimates, in the period from 2014 to 2016, on average, one Russian had 4.5 kg of sweets per year. Until 2014, this figure was 5.1 kg.
An analysis of the confectionery market in Russia shows that the decline in demand is due to an increase in prices. In 2015, prices for raw materials increased, and confectioners raised their retail prices by an average of:
- 11% - sugary products;
- 15% - flour sweets;
- 26% - chocolate products.
Manufacturers of confectionery products in Russia have changed their approach to production during the crisis. To optimize costs and maintain sales levels, the following steps were taken:
- the weight and size of packages and confectionery products has decreased;
- new confectionery products appeared on the market. Instead of standard chocolate bars, they began to produce mini-formats.
- confectionery manufacturers often position chocolates as a gift.
An analysis of the confectionery market in 2016 revealed that the demand for chocolate eggs with a toy is constantly growing. More and more companies are mastering this segment, and new confectionery products appeared on the shelves in 2016. Read more about the situation on the chocolate market.
An analysis of the flour confectionery market in Russia shows that until 2015 this market occupied one of the leading positions in terms of growth rates. A further decline in sales growth is due to a decrease in purchasing power. The exchange rate of the ruble fell, the incomes of the population decreased. The first item of savings among grocery products fell on confectionery. The decline in demand was felt more strongly by foreign manufacturers, because the price for their products increased several times. Buyers still choose sweets impulsively, but, as the analysis of the Russian confectionery market shows, they pay more attention to the price. Cost has become a key factor influencing the purchase decision.
Despite the time of crisis, parents are still ready to pamper their children by buying chocolate products with a toy for them. Most often, such confectionery products are made in the form of an egg, in which there is a container with a small toy. The market for chocolate eggs with toys showed an increase of 8-10% until 2015. After 2015, the growth rate fell to 1.1%, and in 2016 it was only 0.3%.
Most of the population prefers eco-products. For example, chocolate without preservatives and with nuts as a filler. The Russian confectionery market responds to demand and adjusts the range of products.
Features of the confectionery market in Russia
The Russian confectionery market is characterized by a number of features:
- short term for the sale of goods;
- complex logistics due to long distances;
- tradition of home baking;
- a large selection of Russian raw materials;
- high competition among manufacturers of confectionery products in the low price segment;
- low competition in the premium segment;
- the main producers in the flour segment are small businesses.
Confectionery business in Russia
According to Nielsen Russia, sales in the confectionery market fell by 2.4% in 2016. In 2015, the market contraction was only 0.1%. The sharp decline is associated with a shock rise in prices that occurred in 2015. Most likely, the decline continued in 2016, but its pace slowed down. In 2016, prices rose by 9.4% against an 18.4% increase in 2015.
Demand for chocolate bars and loose biscuits dropped sharply – by 10.6% and 11%. Prices for chocolate bars have increased due to the increase in the cost of raw materials. By weight cookies belong to the low price segment, but are not very popular among Russians. Manufacturers maintain interest in their products by introducing new confectionery products to the market and holding promotions at points of sale. This made it possible to increase sales of biscuits in packs by 0.8%, wafers - by 0.6%, marshmallows and marshmallows - by 1.7%.
Confectionery manufacturers: industry leaders
- "Red October". The company produces more than three hundred types of sweets;
- Rot Front. The manufacturer supplies the market with about 50 thousand tons of sweets per year.
- "Babaevsky". This confectionery concern produces more than 129 items.
- "Russian chocolate". The manufacturer sells its products in Russia and in countries near and far abroad.
- "Yasnaya Polyana". The plant is part of the Red October group.
Confectionery manufacturers from Moscow are leading in the chocolate segment
Import and export of confectionery products in 2017
The volume of imports of confectionery decreased by about half. Imports of the chocolate segment fell by 27.6%.
An overview of the confectionery market shows that export volumes have remained at the level of previous years. However, the profit in monetary terms decreased, which was caused by the weakening of the ruble. Exports are affected by rising prices for basic raw materials such as sugar, cocoa beans, additives and other ingredients. An increase in export volumes is observed in the segment of flour products. It grew by 11.2% to 9.9 thousand tons in kind and by 4.1% in money terms. Chocolate products showed an increase of 14.1% to 8.1 thousand tons and 6.5% in monetary terms. The main export market for Russian confectionery products is China.
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New trends in confectionery production:
The premium segment of the confectionery market demonstrates stable performance. The novelties of the confectionery market are due to the attempts of manufacturers to clearly segment the target audience and maintain attention to their products. In recent years, confectionery novelties have appeared on the market.
- chocolate with an unusual taste. The popularity of this type of chocolate came to Russia from Europe. On the shelves in supermarkets you can find chocolate bars with lime, pepper, salt and other flavors that are unusual for the consumer.
- bitter chocolate. There is a growing demand for natural dark chocolate with a high percentage of cocoa beans. The increased interest is caused by the boom in a healthy lifestyle. Manufacturers emphasize that dark chocolate has high antioxidant properties and is able to prolong the life of body cells.
- confectionery for the elderly. Manufacturers have identified a narrow target audience, which they offer products with a special composition.
Forecast for the development of the confectionery market in Russia for 2018
We should expect that the confectionery market in Russia in 2017, despite the decline in sales, will show growth. It is driven by an increase in exports. However, according to the forecast of the Center for Confectionery Market Research, a decline in demand for products such as marshmallows, biscuits, marshmallows is possible. Today, the demand for the chocolate segment continues to fall, but consumer interest in products from this category is expected to increase soon.
The growth of the chocolate segment at the level of 1% per year until 2020 is possible due to the improvement of the economy as a whole. Sharp jumps in product prices are not expected. Manufacturers find new ways to attract customers: they develop an optimal pricing policy, bring new products to the market and package them in original packaging. This is good news for the confectionery market.
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Until 2015, the Russian confectionery market was one of the most actively developing segments of the consumer sector of the economy. Recently, however, the share of lovers of sweets began to fall sharply. The consumption of imported confectionery, primarily chocolate and flour products, decreased the most. According to a study of the bakery and confectionery market conducted in September 2016, compared to 2013, the share of buyers of cream products in Moscow decreased by 19 p.p., and the share of buyers of small-piece confectionery products (cookies, dried gingerbread) - by 5 p.p. .P. (Fig. 1)
Picture 1. Purchase of confectionery products in 2013 and 2016, % of respondents
Why is this happening?
The first reason that lies on the surface is the reduction in consumer spending of Russians due to the weakening of the ruble, the reduction in household incomes and rising consumer prices. Thus, according to the Center for Research on the Confectionery Market, in 2015, prices for confectionery products increased by an average of 24% in Russia as a whole.
The second trend, which, according to market experts, affects consumer activity, is the desire of an increasing number of Russians to bake bakery products on their own. In this regard, there was an increased demand for the purchase of ingredients for baking.
The desire of consumers to lead a healthy lifestyle, and manufacturers - not to lose their customers leads to a change in the positioning of confectionery and bakery products. The most common claims that accompany a new product on the global market are: “no additives and / or preservatives”, “low and / or free of allergens”, “whole grain”, “gluten free” and others. On the Russian market, there are such statements as “supporting a healthy condition and heart function”, “ease of use”, “eco-friendly packaging”, “for normalization of digestion”, “for weight loss”, “non-GMO”, “enriched with protein” and others .
Also, more and more often specialized (for a specific group of people) bakery and confectionery products appear on the shelves of Russian stores and are in demand, for example, for pensioners or people with a certain type of disease.
Sweet satiety will not soon be full
As noted above, compared to 2013, the share of buyers of small-piece products decreased from 57% to 52%. It is important to note that the vast majority of Muscovites surveyed are still more likely to buy small-piece confectionery products in packages, rather than by weight. Women and youth continue to be more active buyers of these products. Also, women are generally more aware of confectionery manufacturers than men.
If we talk about the preferences of Muscovites in terms of types of confectionery, biscuits, as in 2013, remain the most purchased in the capital - they are chosen by 76% of the surveyed buyers of "small things" (Fig. 2). It should be noted that for many types of confectionery there is a decrease in the share of buyers. Thus, Muscovites are less in demand for dried bread and bagels (-8 p.p.), marshmallows (-5 p.p.) and oriental sweets (-7 p.p.).
Figure 2. Preferences by types of small-piece confectionery products, % of the number of buyers
What's with what? It is possible to single out separate groups of small-piece confectionery products, the purchase of which is typical for the same consumers. For example, most often they buy marshmallows, marmalade and marshmallows together. Gingerbread cookies are purchased together with cookies, waffles and muffins. If Muscovites buy dryers, bagels, then there is a high probability that they will also buy sweet crackers. Oriental sweets are purchased by those who love cookies and waffle cakes. The results obtained indicate the interchangeability of certain small-piece confectionery products included in one group, which in particular can manifest itself in a situation of joint purchase of specific types of products, as well as an alternative to others.
As for the places to buy confectionery, the following picture is observed here: supermarkets and hypermarkets are becoming an increasingly popular place to buy sweets. In 2013, 57% of the surveyed Muscovites purchased “small things” there for themselves and their families, today this share has grown to 69%. At the same time, there is a decrease in the share of buyers of confectionery products in convenience stores: 18% against 34% in 2013 (Figure 3).
Figure 3 Places of purchases of small-piece confectionery products, % of small-piece buyers
If we talk about the level of expenses of Muscovites for one purchase of small-piece confectionery, then, according to data for 2016, 66% of respondents spend no more than 300 rubles at a time, which is comparable to the data of a study conducted in 2013.
It is also interesting that over the past 3 years, the level of confidence of Muscovites in Russian confectionery manufacturers has significantly increased (from 52% in 2013 to 63% in 2016). Moreover, this did not happen due to an increase in distrust towards foreign manufacturers, but due to a decrease in the proportion of those who answered “it's hard to say, it depends on the specific brand”.
If they don't have bread, let them eat cake!
The share of buyers of cream confectionery products has significantly decreased compared to 2013. However, this had little effect on the frequency of buying cakes and pastries, on the contrary, the share of those who bought pastries several times a week increased by 6 p.p. and at the time of the survey was 12%.
The main place to purchase cream products, as well as “small things”, is retail chains – it is chosen by 62% of buyers of cream products. Manufacturers' branded stores are less popular, where 16% of the respondents buy these products, and no more than 7% of respondents buy them in specialized confectionery stores and bakeries.
Consumers of cakes began to purchase products that are lighter in weight: 45% of the Muscovites surveyed weighed less than a kilogram of their last purchase, while in 2013 the share of such purchases was 34%. The reason for this decline can be explained, at least, by the fact that cream cakes, which have the smallest volume, require more significant costs from buyers.
Figure 4 Weight of the last cream cake purchase, % of buyers of cream products
At the same time, the cost of the average purchase of cakes increased significantly compared to 2013 (by 23%) and amounted to 611 rubles. As for cakes, on average, Muscovites spent 241 rubles on the last purchase of this product.
The most recognizable and bought products in Moscow are products manufactured under the U Palycha brand (Company M LLC, Samara), - 91% of buyers of cream products know this brand, and 55% have purchased it over the past 6 months. The products of KF Oktyabr LLC (Moscow region) and Fili-Baker LLC (Moscow) are also highly recognizable - they are chosen by 74 and 67% of respondents, respectively (Figure 5).
Figure 5 The fame of manufacturers of cream confectionery. TOP-10, % of buyers of cream products
Existing trends in the consumer market, namely: rising prices, lower consumer spending and incomes, focus on healthy and wholesome products, have affected the purchasing preferences of Muscovites and negatively affected the confectionery and bakery products market as a whole. But, despite some negative wave, such an atmosphere always leads to new discoveries, expanding the range, improving product quality.
The study was conducted by telephone survey among Muscovites aged 18 to 60 who buy bakery and confectionery products in May-June 2013, 938 people were interviewed, in September 2016 - 1205 people.
At present, the Russian confectionery market is conditionally represented by two large commodity groups: 1) cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery products, 2) flour confectionery products. The first group includes caramels, dragees, glazed sweets, chocolate and chocolate products, toffee, halva, marmalade and pastille products, oriental sweets and other sugary products. The second group includes cookies, biscuits and crackers, gingerbread and gingerbread, cakes, pastries, muffins, waffles and other flour products.
According to the results of the first half of 2016, the share of the first group in physical terms is 47.8%, the share of the second is 52.2%. Based on the available data of Russian statistics, the division by segments can be conditionally represented as follows (Figure 1): gingerbread cookies and cakes and similar products, sweet biscuits, wafers account for the largest market share - 41.7% of the total production volume, cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery products (excluding caramel, other chocolate sweets) - 31.1%.
Figure 1. The structure of the confectionery market by volume of manufactured products in physical terms in the first half of 2016,% of the total weight
In the structure of the largest commodity group, the largest share belongs to sweet liver (Figure 2). The segment occupies 48% of all manufactured products of this category. The second position is occupied by wafers and wafer wafers with a share of 16.7%, the third - gingerbread (13.1%). The share structure was built following the results of 2015. In general, compared with 2014, it has not undergone significant changes. Chocolate candies with a share of 22.4% occupy a leading position in the product group "Cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery products" (Figure 3). The second place is occupied by chocolate and food products containing cocoa (except for sweetened cocoa powder) with a share of 14.0%. On the third - caramel (12.1%), including candy caramels, with chocolate icing and various fillings. The share structure was also built following the results of 2015. In general, compared with 2014, it has not undergone significant changes.
Figure 2. The structure of the largest segment of the confectionery market in terms of production volume in physical terms at the end of 2015,% of the total weight
Figure 3. Structure of the “Cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery” segment in terms of production volume in physical terms at the end of 2015,% of the total weight
The production of confectionery products, despite the difficulties of the economic development of Russia, shows an increase from year to year. At the end of 2015, more than 3.4 million tons of confectionery products were produced, while the increase compared to 2014 was 1.2%. Compared to 2010, the volume of confectionery production increased by 20% (Figure 4.). Of course, consumer demand contributed to the growth of production indicators. Even in the last three years, starting from 2014, when the overall purchasing power has decreased due to a significant weakening of the ruble, the consumer has remained true to himself, and no upheavals have weakened his love for tasty and sweet. Therefore, if in 2010 consumption in Russia was 20.5 kg of confectionery products per capita, by the end of 2016 consumption is expected to exceed 23 kg.
Figure 4. Trend diagram of confectionery production in physical terms for the period 2010–2015 and 2016 (estimated value).
It should be emphasized that manufacturers themselves also influenced the increase in demand by introducing new and expanding the range of attractive confectionery products to the market. Sellers also make their contribution by improving the marketing system and product promotion technologies. In addition, niches are being vacated due to a decrease in the supply of imported products. According to the results of 2016, the import of confectionery products to Russia in physical terms will be lower than the results of 2015, when it did not exceed 150 thousand tons and amounted to only 4% of the total supply of the studied products on the Russian market.
Significant in the Russian confectionery market is the fact that, starting from 2013, the export component in physical terms began to exceed the import, in monetary terms (meaning dollars) - since 2014. Thus, the balance of trade turnover of confectionery products has acquired a positive value. However, in 2016, exports from Russia are also expected to decrease in physical terms compared to 2015, when exports exceeded 300 thousand tons and amounted to only 9% of the total confectionery production. In general, in 2015, imports of confectionery products to Russia in physical terms decreased by 2.3 times compared to 2013, in 2016 the decrease will increase to 2.5 times.
In monetary terms, imports in 2015 decreased by 2.2 times compared to 2013, in 2016 the decline will increase to 2.8 times. The decrease in exports of confectionery products from Russia in physical terms in 2015 compared to 2013 amounted to 1.1%. The same value of the drop in supplies will be typical in 2016. In monetary terms, the figures for the volume of export supplies from Russia will decrease respectively in 2015 by 1.5 times, in 2016 - by 1.7 times. As can be seen, the values of import and export deliveries do not significantly affect the volumes of the Russian confectionery market, because they are insignificant against the background of production volumes. According to experts of the Information Agency "Credinform", in 2015 the volume of the market in physical terms approached 3.3 million tons. In 2016, it is expected to reach 3.4 million tons.
In monetary terms, in 2015 the market volume reached the following results: in dollar terms - 19.5 billion in ruble terms - 1.2 trillion. In 2016, with an average annual exchange rate of 65 rubles per 1 US dollar, the market volume may exceed 20 billion dollars, or more than 1.319 trillion rubles. With an average annual exchange rate of 70 rubles per 1 US dollar, it will be about 19 billion, i.e. lower than in 2015, or 1.318 trillion rubles. Thus, in 2016, the market volume in ruble terms will exceed the figure for 2015 at any of the above average rates.
At the end of 2015, according to the Globas-i Information and Analytical System, the top three manufacturers in terms of sales revenue are: Nestlé Russia LLC, Moscow; LLC "Mars", Moscow region; OOO "Mon'delis Rus", Vladimir region (see table 1). Comparison of revenue with the market volume allows us to determine the shares of leaders in the market at the end of 2015: 10.2; 8.0; 5.0% respectively. Representatives of the top ten are also presented in the table.
Table 1. The largest manufacturers in the confectionery market by sales revenue in 2015
| | Name | Revenue, billion rubles, 2015 | Increase / decrease in revenue, % | Market share, % |
| 1 | OOO Nestle Russia, Moscow | 120,46 | 23,6 | 10,2 |
| 2 | LLC "Mars", Moscow region | 93,95 | 16,9 | 8,0 |
| 3 | OOO "Mon'delis Rus", Vladimir region | 58,58 | -6,5 | 5,0 |
| 4 | CJSC "Ferrero Russia", Vladimir region | 33,62 | 14,7 | 2,8 |
| 5 | NJSC "Wrigley", St. Petersburg | 19,86 | 2,9 | 1,7 |
| 6 | PJSC "Moscow confectionery factory "Red October" | 12,24 | 22,2 | 1,0 |
| 7 | NJSC "Konti-Rus", Kursk region | 11,86 | -1,2 | 1,0 |
| 8 | PJSC "Rot Front", Moscow | 11,86 | 15,3 | 1,0 |
| 9 | PJSC "Confectionery Concern "Babaevsky", Moscow | 9,85 | 10,1 | 0,8 |
| 10 | Perfetti Van Melle LLC, Moscow region | 8,95 | 282,7 | 0,8 |
According to the results of 2016, in the absence of serious problems in the global economy, we should expect an increase in the production of confectionery products in physical terms according to the basic forecast scenario at the level of 3%, in the short term, the increase in the indicator will continue within 1–3%. The volume of the confectionery market in terms of money according to the basic forecast scenario may grow in 2016 compared to 2015 by 11–12%.
In the next 2–3 years, if the price growth trend continues, the increase will vary within 4–8%. The market will be positively affected by continued consumer demand. However, there are fears that the uncontrolled rise in prices for confectionery products may still affect this trend. Prices may also be boosted by new rules for the trading industry that came into effect in July 2016 as a result of amendments to the trade law. According to them, the bonus paid by the supplier to the retailer should not exceed 5 percent, and the terms for deferring payments to retail chains have also been reduced.
For sellers, this situation will be unprofitable, as the amount of payments received from suppliers decreases. In addition, an increase in the costs of concluding and executing contracts with manufacturers and suppliers is expected, since retailers must conclude new supply contracts subject to the adopted amendments, and old ones must be brought into line with the new requirements by January 1, 2017. As a result, lost revenues, as well as additional costs will be transferred to the cost of the goods, which may lead to its rise in price.
The information was prepared for the Publishing House "Sphere" according to the data from the marketing research "Confectionery market in Russia", as well as assessments and opinions of experts from the company TEBIZ GROUP
Full version of the study: Analysis of the confectionery market
Publishing house "Sphere": What is a confectionery product? what types of confectionery are there? How much does the average resident in Russia consume?
Tebiz Group:
Confectionery products are food products that are high in calories and contain a large amount of sugar. There are flour and sugar confectionery products. The first type includes products in which the main ingredient is sugar. Explicit representatives of this group are sweets, marshmallows, caramel, chocolate, marmalade, marshmallow. The second type includes products in which the main ingredients are sugar and flour. As an example, you can select cookies, cakes, pies, cakes, gingerbread, waffles and muffins.
The average resident of Russia in 2012 ate 23 kg of sweets, of which 12 kg were sugary products, and 11 kg were flour products.
Publishing House "Sphere": What are the results of the country's confectionery industry? Where are the main production facilities located? Which enterprises have the largest output volumes?
Tebiz Group:
In 2012, the volume of confectionery production in Russia increased by 1% (for comparison, in 2011 the increase was 6%). For the market now, the ability of confectioners to show imagination and release fundamentally new or modified products on the market on a regular basis is of great importance.
The leader in the production of confectionery products in Russia is the Moscow region. In 2012, about 10% of all domestic products were produced in this region. In second place is Moscow, its figure is slightly lower and amounts to 8%. Closes the top three with 6% St. Petersburg. Lipetsk and Vladimir regions each produce 4% of the total Russian production.
The leading Russian enterprises producing confectionery products in Russia are: OJSC "Mars" (Moscow region), OJSC Lipetsk confectionery factory "Roshen" (Lipetsk region), CJSC "KONTI-RUS" (Kursk region), OJSC "Craft Foods Rus" ( Vladimir Region), ROT FRONT OJSC (Moscow), Rossiya Confectionery Association OJSC (Samara Region), KDV YASHKINO OJSC (Kemerovo Region), Slavyanka Plus OJSC (Belgorod Region), Chipita St. Petersburg" (St. Petersburg), OJSC "Confectionery concern Babaevsky" (Moscow), CJSC "Confectionery factory "Slavyanka" (Belgorod region), OJSC "AKKOND" (Chuvash Republic), OJSC "Bryankonfi" (Bryansk region), Ulyanovsk branch JSC "Confectionery association "SLADKO" (Ulyanovsk region).
Publishing house "Sphere": What results did the retail trade show in 2012? Are there any major changes?
Tebiz Group:
Based on the preliminary estimates of the retail audit, we can say that the volume of trade in confectionery products in 2012 increased to 620-630 billion rubles. This is more than in the previous year by 7-8%. The largest sales volumes are predictably recorded in the capital of Russia. Moscow provides 18% of all-Russian revenue from the trade in confectionery. However, its share has declined over the past few years, so back in 2009 the contribution of the capital to the structure of retail sales in Russia was estimated at 20%. For such massive and stable sectors as the bakery and confectionery market, this is a significant change. Following the capital with a share of 6% comes the Moscow region. The third place with the same indicators is shared by the Sverdlovsk region, the Samara region and St. Petersburg (4% each region). In 2012, the most significant progress was seen in Krasnodar Territory, Stavropol Territory and Voronezh Region.
Publishing house "Sphere": How is the situation with prices on the market? Which of the confectionery products has risen in price more than the others?
Tebiz Group:
Retail prices for all types of products of the confectionery industry have been showing positive dynamics for quite a long time. 2011 showed the highest rate of growth in average annual prices for sweets over the past few years. Among the leaders are marshmallows and marshmallows (17.0%), chocolate (13.7%) and gingerbread (12.8%)
As for the situation in 2012, at that time there was a moderate increase in product prices. The recorded dynamics for various categories of confectionery varies from 6.5% to 9.4% per year. The main points of growth in the product-price plane are jam and jam (9.4%), marshmallows and marshmallows (9.2%), chocolate-glazed sweets (8.4%).
Publishing house "Sphere": What is the share of foreign-made goods on the market? Has accession to the WTO affected the Russian market?
Tebiz Group:
The Russian confectionery market is in the TOP-5 of the world's largest markets. It presents a large number of confectionery products from world concerns with well-known brands (Snickers, Mars, Roshen, Kraft Foods, etc.). Nevertheless, the products of these brands are produced directly in Russia: foreign companies built/acquired production facilities in the country where they planned to sell them to increase the profitability of their business.
The share of imported goods in the Russian confectionery market is only 12%. This value has remained unchanged over the past few years.
Accession to the WTO did not have a significant impact on the Russian confectionery market. The volume of imports in 2012, as well as in 2011, showed a dynamics of 4%. As for export deliveries from Russia, their volume remained at the level of the previous year. Customs duties for the past year have not changed.
Publishing House "Sphere": How has the volume of the market changed in recent years? What types of confectionery are the most popular among Russians?
Tebiz Group:
After the events of 2008, experts' opinions about the market were divided. Some of them thought that during the crisis, the population will consume more sweets (a way to please yourself and improve your mood during stress). The other part predicted a reduction in the volume of the confectionery market, based on the upcoming decrease in the level of real incomes. The latter turned out to be right about 2009, when the market showed a negative growth rate of 3%. However, then the market trend changed and during 2010-2011. the market showed positive dynamics at the level of 5-6%. In 2012, the Russian confectionery market also grew, but only by 1%. This indicator makes it possible for the existence of many scenarios for the further movement of the market. According to Tebiz Group forecasts, the most likely scenario is the market stagnation at around 3.3 million tons for the next few years.
- sweets glazed with chocolate (21%);
- biscuits (including biscuits and crackers) (20%);
- cakes and pastries (8%);
- chocolate and chocolate products (8%).
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