Confectionery market research. List of used literature

To identify consumer preferences, a survey was conducted among residents of the city of Almaty. The survey was conducted in crowded areas, in different age groups: 15-20 years old (12% of respondents), 21-25 years old (22%), 26-30 years old (11%), 31-40 years old (16%), over 40 years (39% of respondents). When buying confectionery products, the majority of respondents named quality along with affordability as a decisive factor. The majority of consumers (30%) buy confectionery products two or three times a month. Young people make purchases several times a week, they are mainly interested in chocolate bars. About 20% of the respondents buy confectionery products less than once a month (these are mostly low-income buyers, pensioners).

As a result of the survey, consumer preferences were identified in relation to confectionery products from various manufacturers, whose products are presented on the market in Almaty (table 5)

	Age group of consumers
					over 40 years
		Karaganda
	Karaganda
			Karaganda	Karaganda	Karaganda
		the Baltics	the Baltics	the Baltics	the Baltics
	the Baltics			Kostanay

As the data of the above table show, among the population of Almaty, confectionery products of the local factory Rakhat JSC, Karaganda and Russian factories are most preferred (60% of the respondents indicated Rakhat JSC in their answers, 45% indicated Russia, 41% - Karaganda). These manufacturers are traditional leaders. Confectionery products of Baltic production are at the average level of preferences - 21% of respondents indicated exactly them.

An analysis of consumer responses by age group showed that among young people aged 15 to 25, confectionery products made in Karaganda and Russia are the most preferable. This is due to the higher susceptibility of this age group to promotional activities actively carried out by the above manufacturers. The population aged 26 years and above prefers the products of Rakhat JSC and is the main market for the products of this enterprise. A positive attitude towards the products of the local factory has been brought up by the older generation for years. This is due to the practice of the so-called “funding” or “release” of products that existed in the days of the planned economy, according to which the USSR Ministry of Trade issued obligatory tasks for certain enterprises in the confectionery industry to supply their products to regional state wholesale buyers. As a result for a particular brand - high and medium popularity in some regions of Kazakhstan and almost complete obscurity in others. Thus, consumers of Karaganda over the age of 19 give the first place to the products of the Karaganda confectionery factory of Zhanar JSC. Young people, like their peers from Almaty, prefer imported products from Russia and abroad.

The main task for OA “Rakhat”, arising from the results of the survey, is to attract young people (15-25 years old) to their products. This age group is a potential market, and it is necessary to win the commitment of these consumers to their products. This requires strengthening promotional activities aimed at people of this age through youth-oriented media. In addition, it is possible to distribute products through new distribution channels that are more used by young people - commercial kiosks, bars, nightclubs, discos, etc. This applies to packaged products, chocolate.

Additionally, it is possible to carry out activities to promote the consumption of products of Rakhat JSC, also aimed at young people. In the course of a consumer survey, demand was revealed for confectionery products that are not in the assortment of Rakhat JSC and for gum products (marmalade on gelatin). The results of this area of ​​the survey are presented in Table 6.

Table 6 - Consumer preferences for products that are not in the assortment of Rakhat JSC (% of those who indicated this product)

As Table 6 shows, the most preferred products are chocolate bars, chocolate paste, chocolate with filling. These products have been on the confectionery market for a long time and have established themselves as having a constant stable demand. Regarding the rest of the goods, we can say that they are objectively new goods on the market and the demand for them has not yet been formed.

In the course of a survey of consumers, consumer preferences for certain groups of goods were revealed. In particular, the results of studying the demand for bar chocolate showed the popularity of German and Russian-made products (69% of respondents indicated Germany in their answers, 53% named Russia). Among the imported brands, Fazer (Poland) turned out to be the most famous.

Also, during the survey, the demand for different types of chocolate was revealed:

• -milk with additions was named by 50% of the respondents;
• -milk without additives was named by 42% of respondents;
• - dark with additions - 53%;
• - dark without additions - 57%;
• - white with additions - 15%;
• - white without additives - 36%;
• - with filler - 45%.

As you can see, the most preferred types of chocolate are dark with and without additions, milk with additions, and chocolate with filling.

As additions to chocolate, large nuts, raisins, fruit and berry filling are the most popular among consumers. Neutral attitude to additives such as caramel mass and coconut crumbs. They are not popular as additions to chocolate, grated nuts and waffle crumbs.

One of the objectives of the study was to study the iris market and identify consumer preferences for the shape of this product.

Market research in Almaty showed that in outlets selling confectionery products, toffee is represented mainly by Rakhat JSC and Russian manufacturers (Moscow, St. Petersburg), a small share is occupied by products from the Baltic states. Russian-made iris is widely represented mainly only in retail outlets specializing in the sale of confectionery products from Russia, as well as in large retail enterprises. In stores selling iris of Russian and Almaty production, iris produced by Rakhat JSC is in the greatest demand (74% of respondents). Buyers explain their choice by the fact that, with the same quality, Almaty iris is more affordable (retail prices for Russian-made iris exceed the prices for Kazakhstani products by an average of 30%).

70% of the range of Russian-made iris are square, the results of the survey showed that the choice of consumers in general does not depend on the shape of the iris, but the square shape is slightly preferable. Buyers explain this by the unusual appearance, attractiveness for children. For most of the respondents, the shape of the iris does not matter.

One of the promising types of confectionery is halva. The market review showed that halva in Almaty is represented by Russian factories (Kabardino-Balkarian, Moscow "Rot Front" and Rostov). Halva is available in weight and packaged form, as well as glazed with chocolate. Bulk halva is sold to a greater extent through the street network in the markets of the city, which is also packaged through grocery stores. Halva by weight is present in the assortment of each outlet selling confectionery products, as well as among non-specialized sellers among other products. Packaged halva is present in the range of 90% of retail outlets, which indicates a significant offer on the market for this product. Demand has a different character depending on the type of halvah. So, halva by weight is in the highest demand. However, there are some fluctuations in demand. For packaged products (mainly 300g), the demand is at an average level. Halva, glazed with chocolate, is practically not in demand. The reason for this is the novelty and high price of this product.

In Almaty, halva is currently produced by several private workshops. Their products are not of high quality, which has led to a negative attitude of buyers towards halva produced in Almaty.

One of the priority directions of the commodity policy of confectionery enterprises is the development of packaging and product packaging. In this direction, a survey of consumers was conducted with a demonstration of samples, with the aim of revealing the preferences of buyers regarding packaging and weight of packages.

As an example, to determine the packaging, a dragee was taken, which is currently sold by weight. The respondent was asked to choose the most preferable type of packaging for him from the three proposed options: a cardboard art box, a 200 g plastic bag and an 80 g plastic bag. The answers were distributed as follows:

Variant % of respondents

Cardboard art box 70%

Cellophane bag (200 g) 18%

Cellophane bag (80 g) 8%

By weight 4%

As you can see, the cardboard art box has the greatest preference among consumers. Respondents motivate their choice by convenience, practicality, and aesthetics.

According to the weight of the packages, it was proposed to choose the most preferred option for toffee, caramel and sweets from those offered: 150 g, 200 g, 300 g, 500 g, by weight, other. Table 7 shows the answers of the respondents by the weight of the packages.

Table 7 - Consumer preferences by package weight, % of respondents

The results of a consumer survey regarding the weight of packages showed that for toffee and caramel, the majority tends to the 200 gram option. For sweets (“Forget-Me-Not”, “Premiere”, “School”, “Lastochka”, “Petrel”), the greatest preference among consumers was a cellophane bag with sweets weighing 250g.

Such studies allow us to develop further plans for the development of the enterprise.

The cake market is divided into two large segments - products with a short and long shelf life.

Products with a three-day consumption period, which are produced by almost every bakery and confectionery workshop, are purchased by about 70% of housewives.

The modern market for cakes and pastries is characterized by the appearance of products that can be stored for a long time. The vast majority of companies strive for dynamic development, namely, to enter the federal level. In this regard, a wide variety of pies, cakes and muffins are made, which are not afraid of long-term transportation.

Such products are quite unpretentious in storage. Proponents of the classic preparation of perishable cakes do not perceive competition from such products, they simply do not rank it in their market.

Today, there is a tendency to purchase cakes not only for celebrations, but also for everyday consumption, especially for long-term storage cakes. Every year the range of the market is expanding, and buyers see a variety of new items from small regional and large domestic manufacturers.

According to experts, the culture of sweet consumption among the population is at the stage of formation, respectively, and the demand for high quality confectionery products will tend to increase.

In this regard, the consumption of cakes is increasing, especially if we compare the crisis years of 2008-2009, when there was a significant decline in sales.

It is important to note that the market is characterized by inelastic demand, so a slight increase in the cost of production will not affect sales. Therefore, it is much easier for manufacturers to adjust pricing in the event of an increase in prices for ingredients and components.

Consumer preferences in the market of cakes and other flour confectionery

The most preferred places to buy confectionery products are shown in the figure.

More and more companies are developing their own market strategy by complete rejection of the use of traditional recipes. The release of products that are unique in their kind fully justifies itself, since everything original is in demand. However, there is a tendency to import such a finished product from the West.

Thus, trading companies that organize regular deliveries from European countries or manufacturers that have adopted the experience and technological support of foreign colleagues are in an advantageous position.

Almost every third consumer purchases cakes and pastries approximately once a month.

Based on marketing research, our compatriots prefer local manufacturers. The most popular places to buy flour confectionery products are small grocery stores and supermarkets. In the process of choosing products, the vast majority of people surveyed are guided by previous purchase experience. After that, attention is drawn to the appearance, composition and cost of the cake.

If earlier the consumer paid special attention to the qualitative and quantitative composition of the product, today the short shelf life of the product is closely studied, which indicates its naturalness. The modern consumer is willing to pay for exceptional quality and the absence of preservatives, even at the expense of reduced frequency of consumption.

Due to the limited shelf life (72 -125 hours), the segment of classic cakes and pastries is exclusively a local market with competitive rules.

The growth rate of the market is held back by an acute shortage of professional confectioners.

At the same time, the consumption of cakes with a long shelf life is increasing every year. Cakes with whipped cream, as well as yoghurt and curd products are also popular.

The latter variety is characterized by the use of fresh and frozen berries, which contribute to the fortification of the cake. Fruit and berry products are perceived by consumers as a low-calorie confectionery product with obvious benefits for the body.

A high-tech business requires significant investment in equipment. Without a marketing budget, it will be quite difficult to organize and adjust the supply of products.

Without a doubt, cakes will be successful if a number of conditions are met: the proper level of quality, excellent taste characteristics, an interesting design of the box and product finish, a recognizable trademark, and an acceptable price. Such promising products have every chance of becoming a brand.

* Calculations use average data for Russia

1. INTRODUCTION

Confectionery products are high-calorie and easily digestible food products with a high sugar content and a pleasant taste and aroma. Usually produced using the following ingredients: flour, sugar, honey, fruits and berries, milk and cream, fats, eggs, yeast, starch, cocoa, nuts and so on.

Confectionery can be classified as follows:

• group sugary

o Meringues - baked beaten egg whites

o Jam, marmalade, marmalade - fruits or berries boiled in sweet syrup; flower petals, some vegetables can also be used

o Grillage - sweets made from caramelized sugar with the addition of crushed or crushed nuts

o Jelly - a sweet dish made from fruit or berry juices with sugar and a gelling agent

o Marshmallow, marshmallow - a sweet piece of fruit mashed with sugar and beaten egg white

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o Candy, toffee, caramel, lollipops - small sweets of various shapes made from caramelized sugar, chocolate, molasses, condensed milk and other ingredients

o Chocolate - a confection made from crushed cocoa beans and various fillings

• Group of flour

o Biscuits and waffles - piece dough products; waffles consist of several layers of dough, smeared with filling; cookies may or may not contain filling

o Sweet pies, pies, cheesecakes, rolls - bakery products made from yeast, puff, unleavened, rich and other types of dough, of various shapes and sizes, with and without filling, baked or fried

o Gingerbread - hard baked goods made from flour, honey and spices

o Cakes, pastries - desserts from biscuit, custard, puff, shortbread dough with cream, candied fruits; usually have a nice finish

Traditional confectionery, as a rule, has a high nutritional value due to the content of a large amount of carbohydrates, proteins and fats.

2. MARKET ANALYSIS

A distinctive feature of the confectionery market in Russia is the high quality of the theoretical and practical base, which is a direct legacy of the USSR. Even taking into account the tendency to reduce the cost of mass production, the quality of Russian products is much higher than the quality of Western counterparts.

The features of the Russian confectionery market include:

Short lead time for products

Difficult logistics due to long distances and quality of transport infrastructure

Complete dependence of manufacturers on the quality of the raw materials used (however, this is typical not only for Russia)

The tradition of eating homemade cakes

A wide selection of local raw materials for fillers, and in each region it can be unique berries, fruits, etc.

High level of competition in low price segments and its almost complete absence in the premium segment

In the baking segment, the main players are small businesses

There are several business models used today by market players:

Production of confectionery products and their sale through own retail chains (or through counterparties) - while the revenue is maximum, but both costs and financial risks are high

Production of products to order ("white label") - due to this, the costs of implementation are reduced, but there is no direct communication with the consumer, which makes it difficult to respond to the requests of the end client

Production of products and its sale through a franchise network is a plus here in minimizing sales costs, but there are reputational risks associated with the franchisee's action

The Russian confectionery market was one of the leading in terms of growth until 2015. The negative impact, as well as on other sectors of the economy, was exerted by macroeconomic factors, the weakening of the ruble, and the decline in real incomes of the population. All this led to a decrease in demand for confectionery. With more than 50% of household income spent on food, the demand for non-essential goods is significantly reduced. First of all, this concerns imported products - chocolate and flour, the cost of which has increased several times due to the weakening of the ruble. The volume of imports of all types of confectionery fell at least twice. Imports of chocolate and products containing cocoa fell by 27.6%.

Export volumes in physical terms remained at the level of previous years, but at the same time decreased in monetary terms, again due to the depreciation of the national currency. The limiting factor, including for exports, was the rise in prices for the main raw materials - sugar, cocoa beans, additives and other ingredients. In some segments, however, there is an increase in export volumes. For example, the export of flour products increased by 11.2% to 9.9 thousand tons in kind and by 4.1% in money terms; chocolate products - by 14.1% to 8.1 thousand tons and by 6.5% in monetary terms. China has become a major export market; until 2016, it was in seventh place in the purchase of Russian chocolate products and in tenth place in the purchase of flour products; in 2016, he came in second in all positions.

The result of the changes that have taken place in the market has been a decrease in the consumption of chocolate without additives, various cakes and pastries; the volumes of production of flour confectionery products with a long shelf life, caramel and chocolates increased. One of the drivers of growth in this segment was the increase in exports of these types of products. Also, the growth of the segment was affected by a shift in demand towards cheaper products - cookies, muffins, waffles, rolls, gingerbread. Their sales grew in physical terms in 2015 as follows: cookies - by 6%, gingerbread - by 7%, waffles - by 9%; in monetary terms: cookies - by 21%, gingerbread - by 24%, waffles - by 25%.

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The increase in prices for confectionery products of all kinds in 2015 averaged 24%. The price growth leaders were sugar confectionery – chocolate (+38%) and caramel (+35%). This caused a shift in demand towards cheaper products. According to Rosstat, a kilogram of cookies in 2016 cost an average of 140 rubles, a kilogram of gingerbread - 118 rubles, and chocolate and chocolates - 752 rubles and 570 rubles, respectively.

The rise in prices for sugar, as one of the main components of confectionery products, amounted to 9% only in the first months of 2016 (the cost of futures) and amounted to $0.14 per pound. This growth was a record for the last 23 years. The reason for this growth was the statement of the International Sugar Organization about the predicted shortage of sugar due to adverse climatic conditions.

The logical consequence of increasing the price of ingredients is the search for cheaper substitutes and economical formulations. Producers cannot fully translate the increase in prices for raw materials into selling prices, passing on the growing costs to the consumer. Thus, the profitability of production is reduced.

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It is noteworthy that, according to the forecast of the Center for Confectionery Market Research, in a number of segments that are stable today (cakes and pastries, individual segments of marshmallows, marshmallows, marmalade, cookies, waffles), the situation is expected to worsen. At the same time, the segments that are in a state of decline today (chocolate, chocolates) will soon recover.

The level of well-being of the population largely influences the formation of demand for chocolate products. Accordingly, the reduction in real disposable income had a negative impact on this segment of the Russian confectionery market. According to experts, sales in this segment from 2014 to 2016 decreased by 12% in physical terms; per capita consumption decreased from 5.1 to 4.5 kg per person.

Figure 1. Consumption of confectionery products by category in 2012-2016, kg/person

In 2015, the retail price of sugary confectionery products increased by 11%, and biscuits and waffles by 15%, while chocolate prices increased by 26%. An important factor is the presence of a large number of brands in the economy segment in the segment of biscuits and sugary products, and their almost complete absence in the chocolate segment.

As measures to stimulate demand, manufacturers began to use the reduction of packaging in size and weight. The weight of the piece products themselves has also been reduced. Some manufacturers began to develop new formats for themselves, for example, chocolate bars instead of bars. The positioning of chocolates as a gift with the appropriate packaging design has also become characteristic. Thanks to such marketing activities, market leaders managed to maintain their positions.

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The only category in the chocolate segment that continues to grow is chocolate products with toys for children. This format is mastered by all new manufacturers who have not previously worked in it. The growth in demand is due to the fact that even with a decrease in solvency, parents are not ready to save on their children. The market for chocolate eggs with toys grew by 8-10% per year until 2015, in 2015 the growth was 1.1%, in 2016 - 0.3%.

In the future until 2020, experts predict the growth of the chocolate segment at the level of 1% per year in physical terms. It is expected that the main growth driver will be the stabilization of the country's economic condition. Price growth in this segment is expected mainly due to inflation, which means that there will be no sharp jumps. In addition, the Russian chocolate market has not yet reached saturation, which creates prerequisites for its active growth in the long term.

On the other hand, pressure on the market is expected from the health food market, which chocolate usually does not belong to (with rare exceptions - for example, dark chocolate without additives). This means some shift in demand towards various cereal bars, biscuits enriched with fiber and vitamins and other similar products.

Among the market trends, a stable state of the premium segment of the confectionery market is noted. In particular, this is confirmed by the appearance of new products in the segment. For example, as a significant part of the population is addicted to healthy and organic food made from natural ingredients, new products such as chocolate using honey instead of sugar are emerging, which, according to manufacturers, makes it a “healthy” food. Such products also do not contain preservatives, cocoa butter substitutes and other additives. Nuts, berries, fruits, various seeds, spices and essential oils are used as fillers.

The world passion for unusual tastes of chocolate has reached Russia. Some niche manufacturers have begun to offer chocolate with chili, lime, sea salt, coffee and other non-standard additives.

The confectionery market has a pronounced seasonality, which affects sales volumes and financial results. For example, the maximum level of demand is observed in December, which is caused by the preparation for the New Year, the purchase of corporate gifts. If we take December indicators as one, then the first half of the year shows a reduced demand for products - at the level of 0.60-0.65, in July-September demand increases to 0.80-0.85, and in October-November it decreases to 0, 78-0.80.

The current market trends include, first of all, the course towards the creation of environmentally friendly and high-quality products. Environmentally friendly products are products made from natural, environmentally friendly ingredients that meet international standards and quality requirements. The fashion trend, which experts note, is the interest of consumers in traditional local sweets and, at the same time, the desire to know the place of origin of the main ingredients - for example, cocoa in chocolate products.

Demand for premium products is growing even in times of crisis. This can be explained by the fact that the exactingness of consumer tastes is growing, and this price segment has the largest number of new products and simply unusual products that are interesting to the consumer.

In the context of a healthy diet, the popularity of dark chocolate is growing, which, according to the advertising companies of its manufacturers, is a powerful antioxidant, relieves stress, prolongs cell life, and is a supplier of endorphins. In this segment, the trend is to produce products under the slogan "healthy nutrition".

A new global trend, which has not yet shown itself well in the Russian market, is the production of confectionery for older customers. They can also be classified as healthy food, but their composition differs significantly from other products in this category.

Legislative regulation also affects the growth of the market. In particular, the analysis of world markets shows that a serious impetus to the development of production was given by bans on products using trans fats, which are harmful to human health. The second favorable legislative factor was the approval of the use of stevia in the European Union - a natural sweetener for diabetics.

According to analytics, the demand for energy products with a high content of vegetable protein is increasing.

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Until 2015, the Russian confectionery market was one of the most actively developing segments of the consumer sector of the economy. Recently, however, the share of lovers of sweets began to fall sharply. The consumption of imported confectionery, primarily chocolate and flour products, decreased the most. According to a study of the bakery and confectionery market conducted in September 2016, compared to 2013, the share of buyers of cream products in Moscow decreased by 19 p.p., and the share of buyers of small-piece confectionery products (cookies, dried gingerbread) - by 5 p.p. .P. (Fig. 1)

Picture 1. Purchase of confectionery products in 2013 and 2016, % of respondents

Why is this happening?

The first reason that lies on the surface is the reduction in consumer spending of Russians due to the weakening of the ruble, the reduction in household incomes and rising consumer prices. Thus, according to the Center for Research on the Confectionery Market, in 2015, prices for confectionery products increased by an average of 24% in Russia as a whole.

The second trend, which, according to market experts, affects consumer activity, is the desire of an increasing number of Russians to bake bakery products on their own. In this regard, there was an increased demand for the purchase of ingredients for baking.

The desire of consumers to lead a healthy lifestyle, and manufacturers - not to lose their customers leads to a change in the positioning of confectionery and bakery products. The most common claims that accompany a new product on the global market are: “no additives and / or preservatives”, “low and / or free of allergens”, “whole grain”, “gluten free” and others. On the Russian market, there are such statements as “supporting a healthy condition and heart function”, “ease of use”, “eco-friendly packaging”, “for normalization of digestion”, “for weight loss”, “non-GMO”, “enriched with protein” and others .

Also, more and more often specialized (for a specific group of people) bakery and confectionery products appear on the shelves of Russian stores and are in demand, for example, for pensioners or people with a certain type of disease.

Sweet satiety will not soon be full

As noted above, compared to 2013, the share of buyers of small-piece products decreased from 57% to 52%. It is important to note that the vast majority of Muscovites surveyed are still more likely to buy small-piece confectionery products in packages, rather than by weight. Women and youth continue to be more active buyers of these products. Also, women are generally more aware of confectionery manufacturers than men.

If we talk about the preferences of Muscovites in terms of types of confectionery, biscuits, as in 2013, remain the most purchased in the capital - they are chosen by 76% of the surveyed buyers of "small things" (Fig. 2). It should be noted that for many types of confectionery there is a decrease in the share of buyers. Thus, Muscovites are less in demand for dried bread and bagels (-8 p.p.), marshmallows (-5 p.p.) and oriental sweets (-7 p.p.).

Figure 2. Preferences by types of small-piece confectionery products, % of the number of buyers

What's with what? It is possible to single out separate groups of small-piece confectionery products, the purchase of which is typical for the same consumers. For example, most often they buy marshmallows, marmalade and marshmallows together. Gingerbread cookies are purchased together with cookies, waffles and muffins. If Muscovites buy dryers, bagels, then there is a high probability that they will also buy sweet crackers. Oriental sweets are purchased by those who love cookies and waffle cakes. The results obtained indicate the interchangeability of certain small-piece confectionery products included in one group, which in particular can manifest itself in a situation of joint purchase of specific types of products, as well as an alternative to others.

As for the places to buy confectionery, the following picture is observed here: supermarkets and hypermarkets are becoming an increasingly popular place to buy sweets. In 2013, 57% of the surveyed Muscovites purchased “small things” there for themselves and their families, today this share has grown to 69%. At the same time, there is a decrease in the share of buyers of confectionery products in convenience stores: 18% against 34% in 2013 (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Places of purchases of small-piece confectionery products, % of small-piece buyers

If we talk about the level of expenses of Muscovites for one purchase of small-piece confectionery, then, according to data for 2016, 66% of respondents spend no more than 300 rubles at a time, which is comparable to the data of a study conducted in 2013.

It is also interesting that over the past 3 years, the level of confidence of Muscovites in Russian confectionery manufacturers has significantly increased (from 52% in 2013 to 63% in 2016). Moreover, this did not happen due to an increase in distrust towards foreign manufacturers, but due to a decrease in the proportion of those who answered “it's hard to say, it depends on the specific brand”.

If they don't have bread, let them eat cake!

The share of buyers of cream confectionery products has significantly decreased compared to 2013. However, this had little effect on the frequency of buying cakes and pastries, on the contrary, the share of those who bought pastries several times a week increased by 6 p.p. and at the time of the survey was 12%.

The main place to purchase cream products, as well as “small things”, is retail chains - it is chosen by 62% of buyers of cream products. Manufacturers' branded stores are less popular, where 16% of the respondents buy these products, and no more than 7% of respondents buy them in specialized confectionery stores and bakeries.

Consumers of cakes began to purchase products that are lighter in weight: 45% of the Muscovites surveyed weighed less than a kilogram of their last purchase, while in 2013 the share of such purchases was 34%. The reason for this decline can be explained, at least, by the fact that cream cakes, which have the smallest volume, require more significant costs from buyers.

Figure 4 Weight of the last cream cake purchase, % of buyers of cream products

At the same time, the cost of the average purchase of cakes increased significantly compared to 2013 (by 23%) and amounted to 611 rubles. As for cakes, on average, Muscovites spent 241 rubles on the last purchase of this product.

The most recognizable and bought products in Moscow are products manufactured under the U Palycha brand (Company M LLC, Samara), - 91% of buyers of cream products know this brand, and 55% have purchased it over the past 6 months. The products of KF Oktyabr LLC (Moscow region) and Fili-Baker LLC (Moscow) are also highly recognizable - they are chosen by 74 and 67% of respondents, respectively (Figure 5).

Figure 5 The fame of manufacturers of cream confectionery. TOP-10, % of buyers of cream products

Existing trends in the consumer market, namely: rising prices, lower consumer spending and incomes, focus on healthy and wholesome products, have affected the purchasing preferences of Muscovites and negatively affected the confectionery and bakery products market as a whole. But, despite some negative wave, such an atmosphere always leads to new discoveries, expanding the range, improving product quality.

The study was conducted by telephone survey among Muscovites aged 18 to 60 who buy bakery and confectionery products in May-June 2013, 938 people were interviewed, in September 2016 - 1205 people.

I want to note the serious changes in the Russian confectionery market, which have affected me, my family, and have not passed by each of you and your loved ones. These changes open up new opportunities, and it is precisely today that the confectionery store as a business is promising and timely. What are these changes, why a small business in the confectionery industry gets new chances for development, we will understand in a detailed article.

 

The history of the confectionery business spans over 20 centuries. The first merchants of sweets arrived in the territory of modern Europe from the east as early as the 6th-5th century BC. Primitive lollipops, simple pastries, cottage cheese and sugar baklava were on the tables of the ancient nobility. In the Middle Ages, spices were brought to Europe from India and chocolate from South America. It was a revolutionary moment in the history of the confectionery business.

In France, coffee shops and chocolate shops were opened, in England, scones (a kind of cupcakes), popular to this day, appeared. Russian pretzels and pies also aroused interest abroad. However, it was not until the end of the 18th century that cultural traditions, different confectionery techniques, textures and completely different ingredients could be combined, and the next century is considered the birth of world confectionery cooking. France is considered to be its homeland. But there is another, no less popular direction of confectionery art - the eastern one.

It is difficult to compare French desserts and oriental delights, baklava and Saint Honoré, Turkish delight and Tiramisu. However, oriental techniques for making sweets have about 40% of fans all over the world, so you can’t ignore them.

Consumer demand for sweets has been at a high level for almost 300 years. Moreover, the change in market conditions is obvious: if back in the 1920s gingerbread and cakes were bought as a festive attribute, now the culture of consumption of sweets brings sweet dishes into everyday consumption.

We regularly see pastry shops and coffee houses on the streets, offering a wide range of complex and simple sweets. Strudels, cheesecakes, brownies, muffins, cupcakes are waiting for us at gas stations, in the halls of business centers, in parks and theater buffets, in street stalls and even McDonald's. Confectionery products from the group of elite privileged products have moved into the category of fast food.

But even this serious market change is not the root cause for a new round of development in the small business segment. The fact that cakes and pastries have become the usual affordable “fast food” for every day has led to their reduction in price at the expense of quality. Instead of butter, confectioners use spreads, instead of vegetable fats - animal or synthetic, etc. This makes the cost of the product lower, which allows you to survive in the competition.

The main features of the confectionery market in Russia

The Russian confectionery environment, thanks to the fundamental school of the Soviet Union, has a good quality theoretical and practical base. However, due to the closeness of Soviet policy, a moment of flexibility was lost. Now the dynamics of development of the domestic confectionery is significantly lower than the Western one. However, if we compare the quality of in-line products, then even taking into account the trend of cheaper products, the products of our, Russian companies, can be called tasty and edible, which, alas, cannot be said about many European goods (let me emphasize, we are not talking about private confectionery shops yet).

Features of the Russian confectionery market are:

• short term of realization of products;
• the complexity of large-scale logistics and long-distance delivery;
• a huge number of types and subspecies of products;
• complete dependence of producers on the quality of raw materials from suppliers (ingredient products);
• the tradition of consuming homemade cakes;
• a wide selection of authentic, local raw materials for fillers (berries, fruits, nuts;
• tight competition in the niche of inexpensive confectionery products and low competition in the segment of natural, high-quality, expensive products;
• the prevalence of small businesses in the segment of fresh baked goods.

Now, as mentioned above, the Russian confectionery market is filled with low-quality cheap products, and finding a cake that is tasty, beautiful, and at the same time natural and safe for children's health is almost impossible.

On this dissonance, private traders survive who make cakes to order, small mini-bakeries, private pastry shops that work for 1-2 cafes or a couple of shops. Therefore, now the confectionery shop as a business is interesting and has a good prospect of income.

Experts comment on the market:

Alto Consulting Group in its study of the Russian confectionery market focuses on the constant and non-stop growth of piece goods turnover. Number of items. produced on the territory of the Russian Federation is growing, consumption too. However, compared to the increase in prices in 2013, the current market, despite major changes in the ratio of currencies, has remained virtually unchanged. The quality of the ingredients is reduced, due to this, the retail price of a confectionery product, instead of a natural increase, is kept at the same level.

And now let's take a closer look at the prices themselves, broken down by the federal districts of Russia:

This picture demonstrates a hypothesis stating that the reduction in quality and cost of production releases a niche for high-quality fresh baked goods and / or complex confectionery products with a short shelf life. This is exactly the segment in which small businesses can thrive. We have already considered how to open a pastry shop or pastry shop from scratch in one of the articles, so we will not dwell on this moment, but will limit ourselves to the statement that this business is now promising in a number of ways:

• large manufacturers work for the shaft, so they strive to maintain maximum sales times, which cannot be achieved using exclusively natural ingredients;
• the need for high-quality, natural and safe goods, especially in the segment of children's products, remains more and more unfulfilled;
• The market requires great flexibility from manufacturers, the ability to follow fashion and capture changing taste preferences, which large factories and concerns cannot technically implement or do it very clumsily and for a long time.

Here is evidence of a change in the structure of demand, as can be seen from the graph below, an increase in the production of cakes and pastries that are not durable

Rice. 2. The number of tons of products by types of confectionery products produced in Russia for the period 2010-2013. Dynamics of market development in unit equivalent.

How the confectionery business works: a description of business models and a brief market analysis

As in any other segment, in the confectionery business there are several models that are implemented for the purpose of making a profit:

Model 1: Manufacture and sale of own products through a network of branded stores and / or contractors (a striking example is the Krasny Oktyabr Confectionery Factory, Moscow). The advantage of this model is direct communication with the consumer, and the disadvantage is high economic risks.

Model 2: Manufacture of products under the order of contractors (this is how the Lironas Confectionery Company, the Volga region, works). Plus models in reduced costs for the sale of products. but the downside is. that the manufacturer actually cannot track the buyer's reaction to a change in the assortment portfolio, prices. quality and does so through focus groups and research. which is also not cheap.

Model 3: Manufacture of products and sale through franchised customers. In this case, the manufacturer sells his products in stores operating under his trademark, for example, the Medobory confectionery shop, Crimea. The advantage of the model is that there are practically no costs for sales promotion and the creation of a distribution network, and the disadvantage is that the company's reputation cannot be controlled (if any of the franchised clients behaves inappropriately with the buyer, the manufacturer's image suffers).

In other words, you need to separate two business processes:

1. production of confectionery products and their sale. There are companies that combine these two processes.
2. manufacturing and wholesale, or wholesale and retail. There are enterprises that use only one process in full, and the second - in a truncated one.

Among the largest Russian manufacturers, one can also note such as: the confectionery factory KDV Yashkino (Kemerovo region), the confectionery group of enterprises "Konti", OJSC Lipetsk confectionery factory "Roshen", the confectionery factory "Akkond" (Cheboksary), OJSC "Craft Foods Rus" (Vladimir region), Chipita confectionery factory (St. Petersburg), Galan confectionery factory (Krasnodar Territory), ROT FRONT JSC (Moscow).

Important points in the organization of the confectionery business are:

• selection of a niche for the production / sale of products (today the snack group is filled, and an acute shortage is observed in the field of short-term storage cream products);
• selection of a place and competent calculation of the turnover of a confectionery outlet;
• choice of supplier.

It is on the choice of a supplier that I would like to focus attention. When a novice entrepreneur is about to plunge into the confectionery market, it is important for him to get a hot commodity. To do this, you need to understand what kind of products you would like to sell.

Confectionery products are products of daily demand: on average, each inhabitant of Russia in 2012 consumed 23 kg of sweets, of which 12 kg were sugary, and 11 kg were flour products. At the same time, about 18% of sweets are bought in Moscow.

Competition in the Russian confectionery market is high. Today, the industry has about 1,500 organizations in all regions of the Russian Federation and more than 15,000 local confectioneries (Rosstat data). enterprises producing 55 percent of the total annual turnover of products.

The largest segments of confectionery products in the Russian market:

• chocolates - 21%;
• all types of cookies (including crackers) - 20%;
• cream products (cakes, pastries) - 8%;
• bar and figured chocolate - 8%.

In the period 2010 - 2014, according to Rosstat, the share of imports is constantly decreasing and before the introduction of the food embargo in August, it was 12.2%. Domestic production, respectively, is about 87.8%. The main suppliers of sugary confectionery products to Russia (sugar products include sweets, caramel, toffee and dragees):

For thirteen years (2000-2013), according to Rosstat indicators, the demand for raw materials such as sugar has been showing constant growth, and since sugar is an integral ingredient in confectionery, experts tend to see a direct relationship with an increase in demand for ready-made confectionery. The growth dynamics averages 5% annually. Those. we can say that every year the consumption of confectionery products in Russia increases by 5% (both in value and piece equivalent).

Experts believe that by 2017 the market volume will reach $4.5 billion.

Since confectionery products are not essential products, the demand for them is driven by tradition and external market influences.

The structure of food expenses of an average Russian family includes about 9.5 - 15% of the costs related to confectionery. With the size of the food basket of 1 Russian family (3 people) in the amount of 9.5 thousand rubles, an average of 1,500 rubles is spent on confectionery products per month. If this figure is attributed to the number of households in Russia (52,707 thousand), then we get the nominal market volume: 79 billion rubles per month.

Analysis of the seasonality of the confectionery business

Seasonal fluctuations in demand for confectionery products are an objective reality in all areas of the market. This factor has a significant impact on both sales volumes and their structure. Therefore, a comparative analysis in this industry is most adequately carried out by comparing the same periods of the reporting and last years, since adjacent periods can radically differ in terms of the level of turnover, the structure of sales, depending on the influence of holidays, fasting, the holiday season, the appearance of substitutes (berries, fruits), etc.

Below are the seasonality coefficients calculated on the basis of base December - as the month with the highest turnover in the confectionery industry, due to the pre-New Year mood of the consumer (see Figure 1, Diagram 1).

Tab. 1. The index of seasonality of the confectionery business, due to traditional holidays and climatic features.

				Impact on consumer activity
				New Year according to the old calendar
				Easter, parent's day
				the appearance of the first seasonal berries
				Great demand for berries, fruits
				holiday season in coastal and tourist regions
September				holiday season in coastal and tourist regions
				weather demand
				New Year, corporate holidays

Periods with approximately the same level of buyer activity are highlighted with one color scheme.

Thus, the 1st phase of seasonality (orange) is characterized by increased demand, due to the presence of holidays. In this phase, February is weak due to the short monthly period.

Seasonal phase 2 (blue) is characterized by a sharp decline in demand until July, which is associated with Lent, the appearance of cheaper substitutes, and the onset of a warm period. In April, there is a change in the structure of production: the sale of cream products by weight decreases, the sale of flour products (Kulich) increases, which affects the turnover. This phase is most in need of marketing stimulation and maintenance of sales volume.

July (yellow) is a transitional month from phase 2 to phase 3 (green), characterized by a gradual increase in trade turnover and, accordingly, output. According to the seasonality coefficient, it is comparable with the 4th phase (yellow) of consumer activity observed in October, November, where the opposite trend is observed - a decrease in trade turnover and output due to the outflow of tourists from recreational areas, the absence of traditional holidays until mid-December.

December (red) is the month with the highest turnover in the industry. These seasonal factors are average for the market as a whole.

Small business in the confectionery arena

The implementation of the confectionery business in the segment of private entrepreneurship is, as a rule, a cafe-confectionery. There are few options for implementing this format: a private trader can organize his own small production (confectionery shop for 100-300 kg per day) or purchase finished confectionery products from nearby suppliers.

The advantages of own production are direct contact with the consumer, the uniqueness of the offer and the ability to adapt the range to the needs of visitors. However, this is also the difficulty: in order to release a new type of product, the shop must develop technological maps and change the production scheme. These are time and financial costs.

When purchasing products from a large supplier (or several), the exclusivity of the product itself is lost, but the risk of unjustified costs for the creation of production lines is leveled. In addition, this scheme is more quickly paid back.

Therefore, opening a confectionery cafe should be started with a fundamental decision: we produce it ourselves or we buy finished products from a large manufacturer. If an entrepreneur nevertheless decides to start his own mini-workshop, then the costs of a technologist, shift confectioners, equipment and storage facilities, where both finished products and blanks will be stored, should be taken into account.

It is warehouse storage that is often not provided for by novice businessmen, which leads to enormous problems: products are light, but very voluminous and capricious. For example. to accommodate 20-25 standard cakes, you need a rack with shelves 1.5 * 1.5 m in a cool place with a sanitary permit. And if we are talking about baking, then the cornerstone is the wear resistance of the equipment, since you cannot prepare such products for use.

Benchmarketing: Successful Examples of Implementing a Small Confectionery Business

Foreign models:

Ukraine

An unexpectedly interesting confectionery operates in the small Ukrainian town of Melitopol. Despite the provincial nature of the city itself, the confectionery surprises with sophistication, competent products, a wide coffee list and author's recipes:

Coffee house-confectionery "Bourgeois", Melitopol - restaurant project. This is a full-fledged coffee shop with its own confectionery shop. Interesting and refined products, classic interior and at the same time low prices (average bill $10-12).

France

CAFÉ POUCHKINE, Paris - patisserie in the style of an 18th century French palace. Visitors can choose from cakes with cream, honey, berries, fruits, jam, macaroons, custom-made cakes made from cream, sweets, powdered sugar. Average bill $5-25